The Bulls Just Went On The Record
Good Morning. Something rare happened in Canadian real estate last week: the forecasters agreed. Within days of each other, TRREB and TD both went on record predicting the market turns higher in the back half of 2026 — and both pinned real price growth to 2027. When two big, independent voices call the bottom at once, it’s worth asking the harder question: are they early, right, or just reading the same tea leaves?
Top Story
The Bulls Just Went On The Record
Last week delivered a rarity — two heavyweight forecasters calling the same shot in the same window. After June’s TRREB numbers (6,770 sales, up 9.4% year-over-year; new listings down 12.9%; average price $1,058,658, still off 3.9%), TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld framed 2026 as a “year of two halves” and predicted accelerating sales and renewed price growth in the second half. Days later, TD’s mid-year outlook said much the same for Ontario and B.C. — a second-half sales rebound, with prices turning positive in 2027. What prompted the calls was real: June’s sales-to-new-listings ratio climbed to about 39%, up from 31% a year ago, and first-half 2026 sales edged above the same stretch of 2025.
Read past the headline, though, and both hedge hard. TD expects the H2 pickup to be mostly a rebound off a weak first half, with transaction volumes staying a comfortable margin below ten-year averages, held back by weak population growth and soft hiring; it still sees national prices slipping about 0.3% this year. TRREB’s own CIO, Jason Mercer, framed price gains as conditional — they arrive “if” the tightening continues. The bullish calls come wrapped in a lot of “ifs” and a timeline that runs into next year.
For a practitioner, the interesting part isn’t whether the forecasters are right — it’s what you do with a forecast your client can’t act on yet. A prediction about 2027 doesn’t change what a buyer qualifies for in July, or what a seller’s home is worth this weekend. The value you add isn’t repeating the forecast; it’s translating it into a decision for the specific person in front of you — a very different job from cheerleading the turn, and the one that actually closes deals.
For realtors: a bullish forecast is a useful opener with hesitant sellers, but price to today’s comps, not next year’s projection — the forecast won’t sell an overpriced listing.
For mortgage brokers: “the turn is coming” can nudge a fence-sitter, but qualification runs on today’s rate and income, and a 2027 price call changes neither.
For everyone: forecasts are cheap and plentiful; judgment on a single client’s timing is what they actually pay you for.
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Rest of the News
The July 15 Decision Looms
The Bank of Canada has held at 2.25% since October 2025 — the floor of one of the fastest easing cycles in its history (5.0% to 2.25% between June 2024 and late 2025). July 15 brings the next call plus the first full Monetary Policy Report since April. Markets are split — easing oil and a soft jobs print argue for a hold, while a sticky 3.2% May CPI keeps a modest hike alive — and the rate already sits at the floor of the Bank’s 2.25%–3.25% neutral range.
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Fixed-Rate Specials Dip Toward 4%
Mortgage pricing improved this week. With the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield easing to about 3.05% and the 10-year slipping below 3.40% to a three-month low, lenders’ lowest 5-year fixed specials drifted toward roughly 4.09% — a yield near 3% plus a lender spread of about one point. Prime holds at 4.45%, keeping deep-discount variables in the mid-3s.
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Ontario’s New-Home HST Rebate Goes Live
Ontario’s enhanced new-home HST rebate is now filable — the CRA began accepting applications after June 12, with updated forms expected by mid-July. Eligible buyers can recover up to $80,000 of the provincial HST on qualifying new builds, for agreements signed between April 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027 on a primary residence. Assignments qualify only if both agreements fall inside that window, and builders can credit the rebate at closing rather than making buyers wait on a refund.
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The Trade Cloud Over Every Deal
On July 1, the U.S. declined to renew CUSMA on the old terms, opting for annual reviews while keeping tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos in place — pushing trade uncertainty deep into the second half of 2026. The loonie is feeling it, pinned near a one-year low around 1.42 to the U.S. dollar.
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OTTAWA
While the GTA works off a price correction, the National Capital is doing something quieter — holding steady. Ottawa logged 1,616 sales in May, up 21% from April, though still 10.6% below last spring. The average price was essentially flat at $721,270 (−0.9% YoY), the composite benchmark sat at $635,300 (−0.6%), and the single-family benchmark actually rose 0.3% to $723,800 — firm where the GTA is soft. The median sale price climbed to $660,000, active listings stayed elevated at 4,917, and with a sales-to-new-listings ratio near 48%, months of supply eased to 3.0 — balanced, not frenzied. Condo apartments remain the weak segment.
OREB President Tami Eades captured it well: Ottawa isn’t moving in one direction across property types, and the seasonal lift arrived on schedule even as sales trail last year. The signals worth watching are less about broad forecasts and more about whether demand keeps absorbing supply.
For realtors: a balanced, public-sector-anchored market rewards strategic pricing over hope, and firm single-family comps give a cleaner story than the GTA — but watch federal-jobs restructuring in government-heavy pockets.
For mortgage brokers: flat-to-firm single-family benchmarks make for cleaner appraisals than a correcting GTA, but condo files still carry appraisal and down-payment risk, and an apartment-heavy build pipeline means more rental competition ahead.
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Quick Hits
- LOONIE NEAR A ONE-YEAR LOW: The dollar hovered near 1.42/USD as softer oil weighed on Canada’s terms of trade.
- LOW-RISE NEW HOMES BEAT THEIR AVERAGE: GTA single-family new-home sales ran about 26% above their 10-year average in May, pulled forward by the HST rebate.
- NATIONAL MARKET STAYS BALANCED: The sales-to-new-listings ratio firmed to about 49% in May, squarely balanced territory.
- PRAIRIES REMAIN CANADA’S TIGHTEST: Alberta and Saskatchewan both held under three months of supply, the tightest provincial markets in the country.
Tip of the Week
Prep the HST Paperwork Now
With Ontario’s enhanced new-home HST rebate now filable and CRA forms landing mid-July, the agents who win new-build deals this summer are the ones who can walk a client through eligibility before the offer, not after.
With Ontario’s enhanced new-home HST rebate now filable and CRA forms landing mid-July, the agents who win new-build deals this summer are the ones who can walk a client through eligibility before the offer, not after. Three moves: confirm the purchase agreement dates fall inside the April 1, 2026 – March 31, 2027 window (for assignments, both agreements must); verify the home is a primary residence, the hinge for the enhanced rebate; and ask the builder whether they’ll credit the rebate at closing so your buyer isn’t floating up to $80,000 of provincial HST while waiting on a refund. Pre-flag which active buyers qualify — it’s the difference between a smooth close and a scramble.
How many GTA homes were sold in June 2026, according to TRREB?
Here’s the quiet truth behind every forecast: your clients don’t hire you to predict the market — they hire you to be right about their situation. The turn may come in the back half, or it may slip to 2027 as TD thinks. Either way, the professional who wins this stretch is the one who’s already done the unglamorous work — the pre-approval, the comps, the paperwork — so that when a client finally decides to move, nothing stands between them and the deal. Forecasts make headlines. Preparation makes closings.
See you next Tuesday.
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