Population growth hits slowest pace since 1944
Photos by Maxim Klimashin, Josh Marty and Wade Gardner on Unsplash
Good Morning. Statistics Canada's 2026 estimates just delivered the slowest population growth since 1944 — 189,425 more people over the past year, well below what the country is used to. Alberta led every province at 1.5% growth; Ontario limped in at 0.3%. TRREB used the same week to publish its election platform, and nearly 25,000 Canadians left the country entirely in Q2. Today's issue works through what a shrinking buyer pool means for your pipeline.
Top Story
Canada's Population Growth Slows To Slowest Pace Since 1944–45
Statistics Canada released its 2026 population estimates by age and gender on 23 September. The report covers every province and territory. The headline number signals a real slowdown. Canada reached 41,798,407 people on 1 July, up just 189,425, or 0.5%, from a year earlier. That's the lowest July-to-July growth rate since 1944/1945, when the population rose 126,000 people, or 1.0%.
Growth wasn't even across the map. Alberta led every province at +1.5%, the fastest pace in the country. The Northwest Territories was the only jurisdiction to shrink, down 0.3%. Ontario grew just 0.3%, Quebec 0.2%, and British Columbia 0.1% — all three below the national 0.5% average.
The agency also reported the share of Canadians under 15 slipped 0.1 percentage points to 15.0%. That's another marker of an aging population even as growth stalls. Its estimates draw on immigration and border records from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada and the Canada Border Services Agency. Those figures feed into levels the federal government sets each year for permanent and temporary residents.
Slower population growth means a smaller future buyer pool.
Population growth drives demand for homes, jobs, and services, so a slowdown touches everyone, not just real estate.
Rest of the News
TRREB Pushes Faster Approvals, Skips Population Growth Data
TRREB published a municipal election platform on 25 September, ahead of the 26 October vote for Ontario mayors and councillors. The board says the province recorded just 62,000 housing starts in 2025, barely half of what population growth required. Recommendations span faster municipal approvals, lower development charges, zoning reform allowing missing-middle housing such as fourplexes, elimination of parking minimums, and opposition to new land transfer taxes. None of it addresses Canada's slowing population growth.
Municipal candidates elected 26 October will decide how fast new listings and inventory can grow.
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) · Sep 25, 2026
Nearly 25,000 Canadians Left in Q2, Third-Highest Q2 on Record
Nearly 25,000 Canadians left the country for good in the second quarter, Statistics Canada reported 27 September — the third-highest Q2 outflow in 71 years. The population grew just 0.2%, reaching 41.8 million. Migration still lifted the count by roughly 300,000 people more than left, a gain built almost entirely on newcomers rather than on keeping the people already here.
The Bank of Canada found most households now run a deficit just to keep pace with the cost of living, without publishing an exact shortfall. Separately, RBC reported 51% of parents are subsidizing their adult children's living costs, averaging $6,151 a year. TransUnion warned the strain risks pushing stretched households toward distress borrowing.
Slower growth means fewer future buyers.
Fewer newcomers staying and thinner household budgets both point to slower growth in demand for homes, jobs, and everyday spending.
Source: The Daily, Statistics Canada · Sep 25, 2026
TRREB's Federal Ask Leans On A Decade Of Rental Programs
TRREB filed a federal submission on 23 September. It urges financing measures that support rental and ownership housing supply, naming affordability a top advocacy priority. The board calls financing one of several highly effective ways to ease affordability, citing a decade of targeted rental programs like the Apartment Construction Loan Program. It notes purpose-built rentals made up an outsized share of 2025 housing starts, plus CMHC's MLI Select, as evidence incentives move supply.
The pitch stays supply-side, even as this week's population data points to weaker demand.
Federal financing decisions shaped by pushes like this affect how much rental and ownership supply reaches the market agents and brokers work in.
Source: TRREB · Sep 23, 2026
$8.8 Billion Housing Bill Meets Ontario's Slowing Growth
OREA welcomed the province's new housing and transportation infrastructure bill on 30 March, calling it a step toward easing supply pressure. The Ontario Real Estate Association, which represents nearly 100,000 members, pointed to an $8.8 billion, 10-year funding commitment from the Government of Ontario as evidence of momentum. Six months later, Statistics Canada's September population report suggests the province's tighter constraint has shifted toward buyers. Supply fixes take years to land.
Supply funding matters less when population growth is the constraint on demand.
Source: Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) · Mar 30, 2026
Quick Hits
- PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT TICKS UP — Statistics Canada reported payroll employment rose 26,100 in July. Job vacancies held steady at 501,000.Source: The Daily (Statistics Canada) · Sep 24, 2026
- NON-BANK MORTGAGES HIT $420.2B — Statistics Canada says outstanding non-bank residential mortgages reached $420.2 billion in the second quarter of 2026.Source: Statistics Canada · Sep 28, 2026
- MOVING COSTS RENTERS MORE — StatCan's Canadian Housing Survey found renters who moved in the two years before 2024 paid $1,740 a month, versus $1,290 for those who stayed put.
- TORONTO INFILL SHARE JUMPS TENFOLD — CMHC's analysis shows small-scale infill made up 6.45% of Toronto's housing starts in 2025, more than ten times its 2023 share.
Tip of the Week
Check Sector Vacancy Before Qualifying
Statistics Canada's July data shows payroll employment up 0.9% YoY but job vacancies down to 501,000, a 2.8% vacancy rate — context worth checking before counting on a client's recent raise.
Statistics Canada's July release shows payroll employment up 171,900 (+0.9%) year over year, with average weekly earnings at $1,347, up 3.2% YoY. Job vacancies sat at 501,000 nationally, a vacancy rate of 2.8%, or 2.9 unemployed workers for every open role. That's the seventh straight month with little change. Before you lean on a client's recent raise or overtime to support qualifying income, check whether their sector still shows that vacancy cushion. A borrower in a tightening industry carries less room to absorb a cut in hours than the payroll average implies. Look past the pay stub to the sector trend behind it.
Source: The Daily (Statistics Canada) · Sep 24, 2026
Statistics Canada's latest age and gender estimates show one age group's share of the population shifting more than the other between 2025 and 2026. Which group moved more, and in which direction?
Reveal answer
Slower population growth and near-record emigration point the same direction: fewer future buyers, even as TRREB and OREA keep pushing supply-side fixes built for a faster-growing province. Demand, not approvals, is the constraint this week's numbers actually show.
Watch the 26 October municipal election — the candidates elected that day will set the zoning and approval rules TRREB is lobbying on right now, for a market that may need less new supply than anyone assumed six months ago. See you next Tuesday.
See you next Tuesday.
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