Toronto's jobless rate fell from 9.0 per cent to 6.7. New listings dropped 17.8 per cent. The tightening came from sellers walking away, not buyers walking in. A falling benchmark is not the same thing as buyer leverage when the owners setting it can simply withdraw. And one company now owns both broker submission rails — your workflow now runs on a competitor's parent's infrastructure.

Good Morning. Last week we closed by asking whether July would hold the line June drew. It did more than hold it. Statistics Canada's July Labour Force Survey landed Friday with a number roughly four times what economists expected, and Ontario supplied two-thirds of it. Fewer of you, doing more — and now, more of your neighbours working.

📊 Market Snapshot

Ontario Active Listings

↓ 5.1% YoY (75,759)

BoC Overnight Rate

2.25% (Unchanged)

5 Yr GoC Bond Yield

↑ 3.22%

Ontario Avg Home Price

↓ 2.5% YoY ($831,595)

GTA Avg Home Price

↓ 4.5% YoY ($1,003,956)

GTA Home Sales

↓ 0.9% YoY (5,995)

National Home Sales

↑ 0.9% YoY

📰 Top Story

Toronto's Jobless Rate: 9.0 To 6.7 In A Year

Canada added 75,000 jobs in July and the national unemployment rate fell to 6.4 per cent, its lowest reading in two years. Economists had penciled in 15,000 to 20,000. Bloomberg reported the gain beat the highest estimate in its survey — not the median, the highest. Ontario carried 52,000 of it, the province's third increase in four months and a net gain of 119,000 over that stretch.

The number that matters most to this list sits further down the release. Toronto's unemployment rate came in at 6.7 per cent, little changed on the month but down from a recent high of 9.0 per cent in July 2025. That is a 2.3-point improvement in the market where most of you write your files. Ontario's provincial rate fell to 6.8 per cent, the lowest since July 2024 and well off the 7.9 per cent recorded last December — though still above the national figure. This is a recovery, not an outperformance.

Two caveats keep it honest. Wholesale and retail trade led the industry gains at 21,000; finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing added 18,000, and construction 16,000 — but Statistics Canada notes all three of those were little changed year over year despite the monthly jump. One month is not a trend. And the private sector did the lifting, with employees up 58,000 and self-employment up 44,000, against a 27,000 decline in public sector employees.

Wages are why the bond market shrugged. Average hourly wages among employees rose 2.8 per cent year over year to $37.17, down from 3.3 per cent in June. Strong hiring with decelerating wages is precisely what lets Governing Council sit still, and with an additional fifty per cent duty landing August 19, patience is the path of least resistance anyway. The five-year benchmark rose about three basis points to close the week near 3.22, and the loonie touched a two-month high around 72 US cents. September 2 remains a near-certain hold. October 28 is where the hike probability now sits.

Why it matters

  • For brokers: The floor under the five-year yield just firmed. Clients holding out for a materially better fixed rate are waiting against the data rather than with it, and that conversation is easier this week than in October.

  • For realtors: A Toronto jobless rate of 6.7 against 9.0 a year ago is the demand input nobody puts in a listing presentation. It is why a fall market is plausible even while prices still print negative.

  • For everyone: Watch wage growth more closely than the job count. It decides whether this strength stays disinflationary or stops being so. Next reading September 4.

🗞️ Rest of the News

GTA Sellers Left Before The Buyers Did

TRREB released July figures on August 6, and the reflex reading is a deepening correction. The average price fell $54,972 in a single month, from $1,058,928 in June to $1,003,956 — down 4.5 per cent year over year, with the MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark at $934,600, off 4.6 per cent. Look at the supply side instead. Sales came in at 5,995, down just 0.9 per cent. New listings dropped 17.8 per cent to 14,484, and active listings fell 12.1 per cent to 26,098. The tightening came from sellers walking away, not buyers walking in.

That distinction has limits worth stating plainly. TRREB's sales-to-new-listings ratio sits at 37.1 per cent and months of inventory at 4.6 — both twelve-month trend measures, both still firmly buyer's-market territory. Properties took 45 days to sell against 40 a year ago, and the average sale closed at 97 per cent of asking. Detached carried the decline: 905 detached averaged $1,207,295 across 2,098 transactions, against $1,547,928 on 691 sales in the 416. TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld put it as sales claiming a larger share of a shrinking listing pool, with less room to negotiate ahead if the trend holds.

Why it matters:

A falling benchmark is not the same thing as buyer leverage when the owners setting it can simply withdraw. Price to July closings and to the inventory actually competing this month — a seller anchored on a spring number will collect days on market, then cut anyway. But do not oversell the turn either: at 4.6 months, buyers still hold the hand.

DLC Buys Filogix — And Both Submission Rails

Dominion Lending Centres Group acquired Filogix from Finastra Holdings on August 4 for $58.5 million in cash. Filogix runs Expert, Expert Plus and FXLink, connecting more than 8,000 brokers to roughly 350 lenders, and processed approximately $60 billion in funded volume in the twelve months to May 31. DLC expects $15 to $18 million in adjusted EBITDA in year one. Filogix will operate as a standalone subsidiary, kept operationally separate from Newton Connectivity Systems and its Velocity platform. CEO Gary Mauris says it will continue serving brokers across competing networks.

Why it matters:

For the first time, one publicly traded company holds both dominant deal-submission networks in Canadian mortgage brokering. The operational separation is a commitment, not a structure — and others in the mortgage technology sector have flagged the competition question as one to watch. If you submit through either rail, your workflow now runs on a competitor's parent's infrastructure.

Vancouver Gave Back June In A Single Month

Greater Vancouver Realtors reported July figures last week: 2,061 residential sales, down 9.8 per cent from July 2025 and 18.6 per cent below the ten-year seasonal average. That erased June's near-ten-per-cent gain outright. Apartment sales led the decline at roughly 18 per cent; detached fell only 3.2 per cent, to 639. The composite benchmark landed at $1,088,800, down 6.2 per cent year over year. Chief economist Andrew Lis described the multi-year pattern as one step forward, one step back.

Why it matters:

Ontario and BC moved in opposite directions in the same month — GTA listings contracting into steady demand, Metro Vancouver demand retreating into softer prices. When a client forwards you a national headline this fall, it is worth knowing which market wrote it. Apartments are the one shared weakness, and they are worse out west.

The Buyer Love Letter Is Officially Retired

Canadian agents report that personal letters from buyers to sellers have largely disappeared, a casualty of a market where competing offers are rare. One listing agent's framing: sellers wait for the better price, not the better story, and a heartfelt note does not close a meaningful gap.

Why it matters:

Good riddance. Buyer letters were always a human rights liability dressed as a sentimental gesture, volunteering family status, national origin and other protected grounds that no seller should be weighing in an offer decision. The market has now done what compliance guidance could not. If a client raises it, the answer is that it does not move price and does create exposure.

Regional Spotlight: OTTAWA

Flat sales and a market splitting by property type

The Ottawa Real Estate Board reported 1,325 residential sales in July, up 0.2 per cent from July 2025 — flat, which counts as a win this summer. The composition is where it gets interesting. Single-family sales rose 5.0 per cent to 714 transactions, while townhouses fell 4.1 per cent to 417 and apartments fell 6.6 per cent to 169. Year-to-date sales of 8,288 remain 5.2 per cent behind last year, but that gap narrowed from 6.1 per cent at the end of June. Year-to-date dollar volume sits near $5.8 billion, down 5.6 per cent.

Run those last two figures against each other and something useful falls out. Year-to-date dollar volume is down 5.6 per cent on sales down 5.2 per cent, which puts Ottawa's average price for the year almost exactly where it sat in 2025. The board also noted the market retained considerably more of its spring activity than it typically does in the June-to-July handoff, and titled the release around new listings easing. Flat sales and contracting supply are a different combination than flat sales alone.

Why it matters

  • For realtors: Ottawa is not moving in one direction. Freehold is up, attached and apartment are down, and a market-wide "sales are flat" line will mislead a seller in either segment. Quote the property type, not the board total.

  • For mortgage brokers: Single-family strength against apartment weakness changes which files clear appraisal cleanly. The condo side of Ottawa carries the same valuation risk the GTA condo market does, at a smaller scale.

⚡ Quick Hits

  • FRASER VALLEY FELL TOO — 1,089 sales in July, down 5 per cent from June and 9 per cent year over year, with the benchmark at $877,600, off 7 per cent annually.

  • PRIME HOLDS AT 4.45 — lowest available five-year fixed sits near 3.9 per cent, lowest variable near 3.3.

  • APARTMENTS ARE THE SOFT SPOT — the GTA apartment benchmark closed July at $535,200, down 7.35 per cent, against 4.63 per cent for the composite.

  • US EMPLOYMENT WENT THE OTHER WAY — the American economy shed 23,000 jobs in July against an expected gain of 80,000, and Treasury yields fell as traders scaled back Fed hike odds.

⛏️ Tip of the Week

Lead With 14,484

Stop opening the listing presentation with the price drop. Open with new listings.

Every seller you meet has read that GTA prices fell $54,972 last month and concluded they missed their window. The more useful number is 14,484 — July's new listings, down 17.8 per cent — which says their competition thinned by nearly a fifth while buyer demand held. Pair it with months of inventory: 4.6 across the GTA. The conversation moves from what did I lose to who am I actually competing against in September, which is the only question they can still act on. Brokers can run the same play inverted with buyers: the unhurried-offer window is narrowing, and inventory says so well before price does.

⁉️ Trivia / Poll

Question: How many jobs did Ontario add in July 2026?

A) 52,000

B) 41,000

C) 29,000

D) 18,000

(Answer at the bottom.)

📓 Closing Note

An unusually consequential week for early August: a jobs print that reset the rate conversation, a listing pool shrinking faster than anyone expected, and a transaction that put both broker submission rails under one roof. None of it changes what you do tomorrow. All of it changes how you frame a September client conversation.

CREA's July provincials land August 18. The tariffs land the next day. One of those two sets the tone for the fall.

See you next Tuesday.

Answer: A) 52,000 — the third Ontario increase in four months, and enough to bring the province's unemployment rate to 6.8 per cent, its lowest since July 2024.

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